The running back rules have changed in fantasy football in recent years – the strategy rules, anyway. But it doesn’t have to be stressful. The right answers are harder to come by, but we need to make peace with uncertainty.
In the days of the cow full of bells, you probably needed two superstars to have a big chance in your league. This led to panic selection and position accumulation, and the objective was to attack running back at the expense of all other positions. It cast stressful days and sleepless nights.
In today’s game, the bell cow is nearly extinct. And we’ve learned and accepted that every running back carries a significant risk of injury. The league itself began to marginalize the position, paying running backs comparatively less and aging out-of-position players earlier than usual. It might not seem like a humane way to approach things sometimes, but it’s just business.
Projectable volume is your best friend mid-season. When a starting running back is injured, the upstart backup likely goes into playable value the following week. This is often not true at other positions, where a promoted player’s true level of talent is significant. But at running back anyone being fed becomes significantly interesting to us.
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My preferred running back build is an “Anchor Back” approach, where I have a strong starter to hang my hat on, so I’ll look for values and depth plays later. Some managers prefer a “Zero RB” build, where no early picks are dedicated to the backfield. You’ll also see a “Robust RB” built here and there, the idea being that you get two backs with early picks, with the aim of intimidating the position. I will probably avoid this strategy as it will lock me out of my preferred WR ethos: Get receivers that start themselves.
But you know the tagline for it all. Any strategy works if you pick the right players.
Time to give the people what they want. Here are your running back levels.
The Big Tickets
$47 Christian McCaffrey
$43 Austin Thanks
$42 Jonathan Taylor
$41 Nick Chubb
$41 Sesame Robinson
$40 Derrick Henry
$38 Kenneth Walker
$38 Tony Pollard
$38 Saquon Barkley
$36 Najee Harris
McCaffrey tied to a full season of Kyle Shanahan seems unfair, and the Niners understand the importance of McCaffrey working outside the numbers on a regular basis, allowing him to be tackled by smaller defenders for part of the day. . . Ekeler’s touchdown tally could go down under new OC Kellen Moore, given how aggressively Joe Lombardi fed Ekeler around the goal line. But the octane rating of the Chargers’ offense is likely to increase, and it’s a case where high tide can lift all boats. I hope to have Ekeler ranked two slots all summer long. . .
Barkley didn’t get a full sack, but the Giants sent him some extra money, and there’s almost nothing behind him on the depth chart. The volume is all his. . . Chubb could be facing a career-high workload after the Browns let their talented reserves walk, and the Browns’ offense could swell if Deshaun Watson has a reasonable return. . . Henry enters a 29-year-old season, he’s not used much as a pass catcher, and the Titans should have a losing record. I’ll look to recruit other players when Henry gets to the top of the queue.
Legitimate building blocks
$33 Joe Mixon
$31 Rhammond Stevenson
$30 Josh Jacobs
$26 Aaron Jones
$23 Travis Etienne
$22 Cam Akers
$21 David Montgomery
$21 JK Dobbins
$21 James Conner
mac jones has very little advantage in the Patriots’ command chair, but Bill O’Brien should be good for the Patriots offense, and Stevenson has proven he can play all three downs. . . The Lions would love for Montgomery to join the jamaal williams paper, hammering down the goal line, but Montgomery’s short yardage efficiency has been a mess for a while. But the Lions’ offensive line, a top-five unit on most boards, can make most backs look good. I suspect Detroit recognizes Jahmyr Gibbs needs to be used as a secondary pitch, not the head of this backfield. . .
Akers has been RB3 in his last six games (six touchdowns, 4.9 YPC), and there is very little behind him. I’m surprised the market hasn’t pushed it a round or two. . . I need to like Conner’s draft price before I step into the picture, as the Cardinals probably have the worst roster in the league and Conner is one of those quarterbacks who lives off injury reporting. If you choose Conner as a floor pick, that’s reasonable – not every pick needs to be a “hair on fire” pick. But make sure his other back has more than one roof.
Talk to them, talk to them
$19 Isaias Pacheco
$19 Breece Hall
$18 Dameon Pierce
$18 Miles Sanders
$18 Jahmyr Gibbs
$17 Alexandre Mattison
$15Rachel White
$13 Alvin Kamara
$11 AJ Dillon
$11 Brian Robinson
$10 Dalvin Cook
$10 Javonte Williams
$10 Perineal Samaje
$10 James Cook
$10 Antonio Gibson
$10 Jeff Wilson
Kamara’s efficiency has been modest for two years, the Saints haven’t driven him to short touchdowns, and now he’s in that perilous 28-year season. He plays in a few possible suspension games and I’m unlikely to call him up for any of my teams. . . Mattison’s volume seems assured, but his true skill level limits his upside. At least the Vikings haven’t added a huge threat to his workload, though there are some interesting free agents not yet signed. . .
Had I known that Hall was 100% healthy, he would easily be a top tier and perhaps a complete target. I suspect his best catch will come in the second half (not coincidentally, when the Jets’ schedule gets easier), and he’ll be a home run pick next year. . . White won’t have an easy float on Tampa Bay’s offense, but after leaning on the pass during the Tom Brady years, the Bucs will likely have a more conventional run-to-pass ratio this year. White was unremarkable in his rookie year, but there’s nothing exciting behind him.
Some plausible advantages
$9 D’Andre Swift
$8 Jamaal Williams
$8 Jerick McKinnon
$7 Kenneth Gainwell
$6 Rashad Penny
$5 Jaylen Warren
$5 Damien Harris
$5 Chuba Hubbard
$5 Raheem Mustard
$4 Tyler Allgeier
$4 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
$4 Ezekiel Elliott
Gainwell was clearly in Philadelphia’s circle of trust during the playoffs, and Swift and Penny often require downtime and maintenance. . . Williams could return many rushing touchdowns and still push within the 9-11 scoring range, as the likely answer when the Saints come around the goal line. New Orleans has the potential to sleep; derek carr it’s better than average, the defense is still strong and Santos has one of the quietest calendars for 2023. . . If you see that Warren has immediate standalone value, take him up a notch. I suspect his case as Fantasy’s starter would require an injury to Harris.
bargain
$3 Khalil Herbert
$3
$3 White Zamir
$3 Pierre Strong
$3 Zach Charbonnet
$3 Jerome Ford
$2 Elias Mitchell
$2 Cordarrelle Patterson
$2 D’Onta Foreman
$2 Kendre Miller
$2 Devin Singletary
$2 Kareem Hunt
$2 Ty Chandler
$2 Gus Edwards
$2 Tyjae Spears
$2 Bigsby Tank
$1 Deuce Vaughn
$1 Joshua Kelley
$1 Chase Brown
$1 Roschon Johnson
$1 DJ Dallas
$1 Ty Montgomery
$1 JaMycal Hasty
$1 Eric Gray